Air conditioning may be weakening climate action, Singapore study finds

Air conditioning has become a necessity during severe heatwaves. It helps people stay safe at work, lets children sleep properly, and reduces the risk of dangerous heat stress for older adults.

Across many tropical cities, air conditioning is increasingly viewed not as an indulgence, but as a basic means of coping.

Yet there is a downside. As more residents depend on private cooling to get through rising temperatures, they may be less inclined to back broader changes that would cool whole neighbourhoods.

That uneasy trade-off sits at the heart of a new Singapore-based study, which suggests that air-conditioning is subtly reshaping how people react to the climate pressures around them.

Human behaviour limits climate action

The issue is about far more than comfort. Climate change is driving rapid warming in cities worldwide.

On top of that sits the urban heat island effect, where concrete, asphalt and densely packed buildings soak up heat and hold on to it well after sunset.

In some places, nights barely cool at all. Meanwhile, widespread use of air conditioners releases additional heat into the surrounding air.

Researchers from the Singapore University of Technology and Design and the Singapore-ETH Centre describe this dynamic as “behavioral insulation.”

In essence, if people can protect themselves indoors from oppressive heat, the motivation to support wider public measures can start to diminish.

Air-conditioning use is increasing

To explore the pattern, the researchers reviewed survey data from 967 adults living in 416 households in Singapore. They paired these responses with information on household electricity consumption and local heat conditions across different neighbourhoods.

Their results pointed to a gap between what people notice and what they do.

Participants who felt the heat most acutely were more likely to raise climate issues in conversation and encourage others to take them seriously. Even so, that heightened concern seldom showed up as reduced energy use at home.

Homes that depended heavily on air-conditioning tended to consume more electricity and were less likely to take up energy-saving routines.

“One of the key findings is that experiencing heat does not automatically translate into lower-energy behaviour or stronger collective climate action,” said Dr. Natalia Borzino, lead author of the study.

“People may become more climate-aware and more vocal about heat, while still relying heavily on energy-intensive cooling to manage daily life.”

This matters because global demand for cooling is climbing.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that air conditioning could become one of the largest contributors to rising energy demand in the decades ahead.

Growth is expected to be particularly pronounced across Asia, Africa and the Middle East.

With incomes increasing and living standards improving, millions of households are buying air conditioners for the first time.

The problem outside the front door

Singapore offered a valuable real-world test case. The city-state is compact, humid, highly urbanised and extensively air-conditioned.

In that sense, it may foreshadow what many other warming cities will soon have to manage.

The researchers found that electricity use was higher in hotter neighbourhoods largely because residents ran cooling more often.

Air conditioning emerged as the key connection between intensifying urban heat and growing energy demand.

Extensive reliance on cooling also reduced support for public measures aimed at lowering outdoor temperatures, such as planting trees, creating shaded walkways and promoting greener neighbourhoods.

At the same time, many households were still prepared to spend more money to make indoor spaces more comfortable.

Caught in a vicious cycle

This combination creates a challenging feedback loop. As cities heat up, more people retreat into privately cooled spaces.

And the more effective private cooling feels, the less urgent it may seem to push for larger, community-wide fixes.

“Heat is not just a temperature challenge. It is also a behavioural and planning challenge,” said Professor Samuel Chng.

“If cities rely too heavily on private cooling, they risk locking in higher energy demand while weakening the collective support needed for wider urban heat solutions.”

Cooling cities instead of just buildings

The researchers do not present air-conditioning as the villain. In tropical settings, cooling supports health and wellbeing, and during extreme heat it can be life-saving.

Even so, the study argues that cities cannot rely on air-conditioning as the sole solution.

Urban planners have long recognised that shade, trees, ventilation, reflective materials and better street layouts can reduce temperatures across entire neighbourhoods.

Green roofs and parks can help cut surface heating. Improved airflow between buildings can stop heat from becoming trapped.

Even roads and rooftops in lighter colours can reflect sunlight rather than absorbing it.

Individual adaptation and collective resilience

These approaches differ from air conditioning in a crucial way: instead of cooling individual flats one by one, they reduce heat exposure outdoors for everyone.

“This research shows that adaptation is not just a technical or infrastructural issue. It is fundamentally social and behavioral,” said Dr. Harvey Neo.

“The challenge for cities is to design systems where individual adaptation and collective resilience reinforce each other, rather than move in opposite directions.”

A warning for growing cities

In many places, access to air-conditioning remains comparatively limited for now, but that is changing quickly.

As temperatures climb and cooling technologies become more affordable, billions of people are expected to purchase air-conditioners over the coming decades.

Countries already experiencing punishing summer heat are reporting record electricity demand during the hottest months, and some regional power grids are struggling to cope.

The Singapore findings suggest that the discussion about staying cool needs to expand beyond appliances alone.

Protecting people during extreme heat is essential. So too is building cities where residents are less exposed to dangerous temperatures in the first place.

Otherwise, the years ahead may bring more air-conditioners, greater energy use, hotter streets and weaker public backing for the very changes that could make urban life more liveable for all.

The full study was published in the journal Sustainable Cities and Society.